Paris: Russian invasion to Ukraine has raised the specter of something that is considered almost unthinkable to date: the use of small nuclear weapons during the conflict in Europe.AFP look at the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin will ratify what is called a “tactical” nuclear attack on countries that have repeatedly claimed to form “one person” with Russia.
Why are there worries?
On February 27, three days after the start of the invasion, Putin ordered his defense head to place Russian nuclear forces at a high warning in a very choreographed meeting in front of the TV camera Western countries quickly condemned the move, with US Secretary Antony Blinken called it “provocative” and “height of irresponsible.”
Most Western analysts believe rhetoric is designed to prevent the United States and its allies to increase their support for Ukraine outside of economic sanctions and existing weapons supplies “Not only is this intended to instill fear throughout the world; it is also intended to frighten anyone from helping in Ukraine,” Beatrice Fikn, who led the international campaign to abolish nuclear weapons, to AFP.
How big is the Russian nuclear Arsenal?
Russia has the largest number of nuclear warheads in any country, according to the SIPRI Peace Research Institute in Stockholm, which places numbers at 6,255 Experts say the risk in Ukraine is not the spread of giant “strategic” weapons, which pose a threat to the entire planet.
Instead, Putin might be tempted to use a “tactical” weapon, with smaller warheads that caused localized destruction but without life threatening throughout Europe These weapons come in various sizes, and the impact depends on whether they explode on the ground or above the surface of the earth.
US President Joe Biden also claims this week that Moscow is considering the use of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine “Chemical weapons will not change the direction of war. Tactical nuclear weapons that reduce the city of Ukraine for debris? Yes,” Mathieu Boulehue, an analyst at Chatham House based in London, told AFP.
Isn’t the nuclear weapon a last choice?
Yes, but Ukraine and the Western capitals are afraid that Putin finds himself cornered, maintaining a loss of battlefields and economic problems in homes that place their political survival Tactical nuclear strikes will be intended to break down the resistance of the Ukrainian forces and force President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender Pavel Luzin, an expert at the Think-Tank puzzle that focused on Russia, said the first step would see tactical weapons used above the sea or uninhabited areas, as intimidation.
“After that, if the enemy still wants to fight, it can be used against enemies in a direct way,” he said – which means above the city Christopher Chivvis, who served as US Main Intelligence Officer for Europe from 2018 to 2021, said that recently there was a “only two lane” to end the war “One, keep escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; another, bitter peace worn to Ukraine who was defeated,” he wrote in the Guardian newspaper.
What did Kremlin say?
On Tuesday, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked three times by the interviewer CNN Christiane Amanpour to put aside the use of nuclear weapons.
He referred to as a Russian nuclear doctrine published in 2020, where “you can read all the reasons for nuclear arms to use. “If it’s an existential threat to our country, it can be used according to our concept,” Peskov said.
Claims recently from the Kremlin about Ukraine developed chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons – dismissed as disinformation by Western officials – is a reason to be a concern The use of mass destruction weapons against Russia will be a doctrinal justification to respond with nuclear weapons,” said Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, a Russian nuclear doctrine expert at Oslo University.
Is this just alarmism?
Maybe. William Alberque, a weapons control expert at the International Institute for strategic studies, a British think-tank, told AFP that he doubted Putin would deploy tactical nuclear weapons “The political costs of the use of nuclear weapons will be outrageous. He will lose a little support he still has. Indians must pull out. Chinese people too,” he said.
Ven Bruusgaard suggested that Putin’s worries about his own place in history might deter him He also needs approval to launch one of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Valery Gerasimov General Staff.
“The military impact cannot be predicted to be at least and potentially very dangerous for Russia,” he said, because NATO or the United States may feel obliged to enter the conflict directly “That’s the right scenario that is trying to avoid Russia,” he said.